Troy vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Picks – 76 Birmingham Bowl

Nov 25, 2023; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Jaquez Moore (9) and Duke Blue Devils tight end Nicky Dalmolin (81) celebrate during the second half of the game against Pittsburgh Panthers at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY SportsThe Troy Trojans are 7.5-point favorites over the Duke Blue Devils in the Birmingham Bowl on Saturday, December 23Duke is 2-0 straight up in two previous meetings with TroyThe Trojans are 2-0 against the spread in those two games against the Blue Devils

Depending on how you view things, past meetings between the Duke Blue Devils (7-5, 6-6 ATS) and Troy Trojans (11-2, 8-5 ATS) have turned out perfectly for both schools.

Duke won outright both times playing Troy – 34-17 on the road in 2014 and 38-31 at home in 2013. However, the Trojans covered in both of those games against the Blue Devils. Duke was the 18-point away chalk in the most recent meeting, and a 13.5-point home pick in 2013.

As they meet in the rubber match at the Birmingham Bowl, for the first time the Trojans are favored. They’re 7.5-point favorites in the Troy vs Duke odds.

Let’s look more deeply look into this Troy vs Duke matchup and offer you our pick for this NCAA football bowl game.

Troy vs Duke Odds

In the Troy vs Duke odds, the Trojans are -300 moneyline favorites, giving them a 75% implied win probability. The total is set at 44.5 points. Troy’s last four games have all gone over.

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The Trojans are 6-3 SU all-time in Bowl Game appearances. Troy beat UTSA 18-12 in last year’s Cure Bowl.  The Trojans are on a five-game bowl winning streak. Duke was a 30-13 winner over UCF in last year’s Military Bowl. The Blue Devils have won four bowl games in a row and are 7-8 SU in their bowl history that dates back to the 1939 Rose Bowl.

Kickoff for this game at Protective Stadium on Saturday, December 23 is set for 12:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by ABC.

Trojans vs Blue Devils Betting Trends

There’s definite uncertainty about this game in the college football public betting splits. Both spread and moneyline bettors are divided regarding the outcome.

Favored Troy is getting 71% of the handle in the spread splits, while Duke is pulling 57% of bets. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS over their last nine games.

As for moneyline splits, 74% of handle is going to the Blue Devils and 89% of bets are on the Trojans. Duke is 12-6 SU through the school’s past 18 games.

There is unity among the people when it comes to the total. The over is getting 80% of handle and 81% of bets. Duke is a solid over bet this year, going 7-4-1 on the total. As well, the total has gone over in four of Troy’s past five games.

Coaching Carousel Affecting Both Schools

While which players are sitting out bowl games, or entering the transfer portal often impacts bowl game betting lines, in this instance, there’s also a coaching kerfuffle permeating each school.

Troy’s Jon Sumrall left to take over at Tulane. Duke coach Mike Elko accepted the Texas A&M job. Both teams will be led by interim head coaches in the Birmingham Bowl. Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato will be in charge of the Trojans. It’s Trooper Taylor, who was Elko’s assistant head coach, at the helm of Duke.

It's finally @76® Birmingham Bowl Week. The teams are in town. @troytrojansFB @dukefootball @cityofbhamal @jeffcoToday @inbirmingham pic.twitter.com/sgR84D06Ff

— 76® Birmingham Bowl (@Birmingham_Bowl) December 20, 2023

The Blue Devils also lost QB Riley Leonard. He’s transferring to Notre Dame. He’s among 11 key Duke players opting to enter the transfer portal. Also among the departing are DE RJ Oben, the team leader with five sacks, DT Aeneas Peebles, who has 8.5 tackles for loss this season, and kicker Charlie Ham.

Defense Key For Blue Devils, Trojans

Stopping the other squad is a vital component of success for both the Blue Devils and Trojans. When they don’t, bad things happen.

Duke is 1-5 SU this season when allowing 21 or more points in a game. The Blue Devils are 5-0 SU when holding opposing teams to under 380 yards in total offense.

𝟭𝟮 𝗗𝗔𝗬𝗦 𝗢𝗙 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬𝗦

It’s almost like we planned it … Fresh off his Senior Bowl invite, Javon Solomon checks in on his record-breaking sack at ULM. pic.twitter.com/ZgCNd8JA2z

— Troy Trojans Football 8x⚔️ (@TroyTrojansFB) December 14, 2023

For the the Trojans, they key everything around the nation’s most dangerous pass rusher. DE Javon Solomon has accounted for an NCAA-best 16 sacks, tying the school single-season record. Troy Is tied for fourth in the nation with 45 sacks. That’s an average of 3.46 sacks per game. The Trojans are also seventh in the nation in tackles for loss (98).

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Troy vs Duke Prediction

Troy’s two losses were to top NCAA schools – James Madison and Kansas State. Duke certainly has the capability to hold the Trojans in check.

However, the Blue Devils lost a bunch of players to the transfer portal, and that will make depth an issue. Expect Troy to pull away in the second half

Troy vs Duke Pick: Troy Trojans -7.5 (-110)