Three NFL Week 16 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 16 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 16 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

December 20, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

The Titans have a chance this week because they aren’t wearing the Oilers uniforms (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Successfully predicting an upset in an NFL Week 16 matchup, unnoticed by the general public, extends beyond mere boasting rights. Historically, underdogs can present more lucrative opportunities for betting value than favorites.

In this piece, we present our top three Week 16 upset picks, focusing on moneyline odds—the potential payout when betting on the underdog to secure an outright victory.

While some of these upset selections may closely resemble coin-flip scenarios, others might be considered long shots, with an expectation of far more losses than wins (refer to the conclusion section for pertinent notes on expectations).

The common thread among these picks is our conviction that they represent sensible wagers when considering the balance between risk and reward, and will prove to be profitable over the long term.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units2023 Season: 15-30 for -5.8 units

It’s been a season devoid of late-game success, and that continued with the Bears failing to close out a game with a two-score lead late. We ended up dropping all three picks in Week 15, though two of them were longer shots. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Washington (+246) managed to take four minutes to score from the 1-yard line late, and lost 28-20.Chicago (+154) had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, but blew another late lead, losing 20-17 to the Browns.NY Giants (+219) lost 24-6 as QB Tommy DeVito was sacked 7 times in New Orleans.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 16, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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Week 16 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Carolina Panthers (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Moneyline: +194Point Spread: +5

This is our top playable moneyline model pick and spread pick for Week 16.

Carolina is coming off the ugly 9-7 win over Atlanta in terrible conditions, only their second win of the year. The Packers have squandered what looked like an opportunity for the playoffs, with consecutive losses to the Giants and Bucs.

Carolina doesn’t have their first round pick next year, so they don’t have any incentive to not play all out at the end of a lost season, if you are worried about draft-related motivation. While their offense continues to struggle, the defense has been playing much better, and hasn’t allowed more than 322 yards in any game since a Week 7 bye.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is struggling on defense, getting gashed on the ground against the Giants and then lit up by Tampa Bay. The rush defense is  faltering at 4.6 yards per carry allowed, and prior to the Tampa Bay game where they were mostly beaten through the air, had given up at least 140 rushing yards in five straight.

Carolina’s offense may not be good, but they can run the ball, and the Packers’ offensive skill players are also hurting.

Tennessee Titans (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

Moneyline: +127Point Spread: +2.5

This is a playable moneyline model pick for Week 16.

The Titans are coming off a collapse against Houston after having a lead, while the Seahawks are coming off an exhilarating late win on Monday Night Football. But that Philadelphia win was an anomaly based on recent form, as Seattle had lost five of six games before that.

Will Levis, the rookie QB for Tennessee, suffered an ankle injury last week, but is expected to play. (The team would turn to veteran Ryan Tannehill if he does not.)

Some of the model factors showing up for Tennessee include their high rate of scoring TDs on the ground recently, the Seahawks’ terrible run defense (5.26 yards per carry allowed over the last seven games), and Seattle’s low percentage of first downs coming by rushes.

Washington Commanders (at New York Jets)

Moneyline: +146Point Spread: +3

This is not a model pick, as our models currently only have two playable moneyline dogs this week, but rather a play based on the Jets’ offensive form.

In this matchup of completely movable object (Washington’s defense) versus utterly resistible force (the Jets offense), we’ll take the plus-money and go against the worst offense in the league.

The laundry list of Jets’ ineptness on offense is endless. They are last in total yards, yards per drive, points per drive, and plays per drive. They are dead last in passing touchdowns (9) but make up for that by also being last in rushing touchdowns (4).

So in this battle of teams ready for the offseason, we’ll take the points against the team that cannot seem to score on any kind of sustained drive.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

We dropped to a pretty rough 9-20 in one-score results, with the Bears blowing a late 10-point lead.

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No
10	GB	PIT	151	147	L 23-19	Yes
10	DEN	BUF	306	305	W 24-22	No
10	WAS	SEA	296	220	L 29-26	Yes
11	ARI	HOU	185	200	L 21-16	No
11	PHI	KC	125	129	W 21-17	No
11	PIT	CLE	-105	117	L 13-10	No
12	HOU	JAC	105	100	L 24-21	Yes
12	LAC	BAL	155	145	L 20-10	Yes
12	CHI	MIN	158	140	W 12-10	Yes
13	PHI	SF	125	134	L 42-19	No
13	CAR	TB	200	167	L 21-18	Yes
13	ARI	PIT	220	235	W 24-10	No
14	CHI	DET	150	140	W 28-13	Yes
14	LAR	BAL	270	280	L 37-31	No
14	DEN	LAC	125	143	W 24-7	No
15	WAS	LAR	246	255	L 28-20	No
15	CHI	CLE	154	129	L 20-17	Yes
15	NYG	NO	219	222	L 24-6	No

NFL Week 16 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 16 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 16 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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