Tennessee vs Kentucky Predictions & Odds for Saturday, March 9

Feb 27, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves (12) reacts with guard Reed Sheppard (15) after a basket during the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports#15 Kentucky travels to Knoxville to take on #4 Tennessee in each team’s regular-season finaleAfter Wednesday’s win over South Carolina, Tennessee clinched the #1 seed in next week’s SEC TournamentSee the Kentucky vs Tennessee odds, analysis, and predictions for March 9

The college basketball regular season ends with an exciting matchup between the #4 team and the #1 team in the SEC. This rivalry game tips off at 4 pm EST in Knoxville, TN. Kentucky is looking for revenge after falling to the Volunteers at home 103-92 on February 3. Tennessee locked up the 1-seed in the SEC Tournament after their 66-59 win over South Carolina on Wednesday. Kentucky is still battling for seeding.

Both of these teams enter this game red-hot. Kentucky has won six of their last seven, while Tennessee has won seven in a row. Each team’s offense has been a huge reason why. In their last four games, Kentucky is averaging 103 points per game. The Volunteers have averaged over 82 points per game during their seven-game winning streak, and they have scored at least 86 points in four of those games. Tennessee currently has the fifth-best March Madness odds at +1200.

Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds

Odds as of Mar. 9 at DraftKings. Lock in a sign up bonus for DraftKings to get a No Sweat First Bet Up to $1,000 for Kentucky vs Tennessee.

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The college basketball odds have Tennessee as 7.5-point home favorites over Kentucky. The line opened at 9.5 but has since moved two points. Points are expected to come in bunches Saturday afternoon as the O/U is 167 points. The total opened at 165, and has been on the move. 195 points were scored when these two teams met a month ago in Lexington.

Tennessee is the heavy favorite to complete their regular season sweep over their rival, Kentucky. At -310 odds, Tennessee has an implied win probability of 75.61%. The Volunteers won by 11 points in their last matchup. This rivalry has been pretty even of late. In the 16 games played since 2018, Tennessee has won nine of them. Kentucky swept Tennessee last season, so the Volunteers would love to return the favor this year.

Kentucky vs Tennessee Betting Splits

The line has already moved from Kentucky +9.5 to +7.5, and if the college basketball public betting trends continue, the line could move more as we near tip-off. 86% of the betting handle is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. Kentucky also has 75% of the bets in this rivalry game.

70% of the bets and 69% of the money are also on the over, and with both offenses playing how they have been of late, it is hard to blame the public.

The public has been all over Kentucky and the over since the odds were released.

Kentucky Betting Trends

The Wildcats started SEC play with a 5-4 record but have flipped a switch. Kentucky went 7-1 over their next eight conference games, giving them a 12-5 SEC record. The Wildcats have gone 17-13 (56.7%) against the spread this season.

Many college basketball teams have struggled on the road this season, but Kentucky has not been one of those teams. They are 6-3 away from Lexington and have also gone 6-3 against the spread as the away team. Kentucky has won two of their last three road games outright. The Wildcats had an impressive 70-59 win at Auburn on February 28 and won a close 91-89 bout at Mississippi State a few games later. Their last loss was a one-point defeat on the road at LSU on February 21.

This success can be attributed to Kentucky’s efficiency. They can score from anywhere on the court, as they rank in the top three in three-point percentage and in the top 30 in two-point percentage. The Wildcats also rarely turn the ball over and do not allow their opponents free possessions.

With their high-flying offense, Kentucky’s defense has become an afterthought. These games typically turn into high-scoring battles. The last four Kentucky games, in fact, have gone over and none of them caused bettors to sweat. Unlike their offense, Kentucky struggles to force turnovers as they are outside the top 200 in turnovers forced. Lucky for them, their offense does just fine without adding additional possessions.

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Tennessee Betting Trends

Tennessee has gone through an SEC gauntlet on their way to their regular season crown. They faced Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina and defeated all of them by at least seven points. Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee has always had a strong defense, but something is different with this year’s Tennessee team. Dalton Knecht.

Knecht only trails Zach Edey in the Wooden Award odds. The 6’6 senior guard is averaging over 20 points per game for the Vols and is shooting 47.3% from the field. He has been the difference maker this season for Tennessee and has shown an ability to take over games. Knecht has scored at least 24 points in three of his last four, including a huge 39-point performance his last time in Knoxville against Auburn.

Dalton Knecht's dunk was 😉😉😉 pic.twitter.com/m9s8H6Pieo

— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) October 29, 2023

The Volunteers have put together a 16-13-1 (55.2%) against the spread record this season. They have been much more impressive on their home court, as Tennessee is 10-4-1 against the spread in Knoxville this year. That is good for 71.4%. Not only has Tennessee won seven in a row, but they have covered the spread in six of those games. Tennessee is by far one of the hottest teams in the country.

While their offense has taken that next step, Tennessee’s defense has still been a strong unit. The Volunteers are third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Because of this, the under has hit in five of Tennessee’s last six games despite the offense putting up at least 80 points in the majority of those games.

Kentucky vs Tennessee Prediction

Tennessee might be one of the hottest teams in college basketball, but they just went through a gauntlet on their way to clinching the #1 seed in the SEC  Tournament. Besides it being a rivalry game, the Volunteers do not have much to play for in this one.

Kentucky, on the other hand, is still playing for seeding and would like to avenge their 11-point loss to Tennessee from earlier in the season. The Wildcats have played well, and more importantly, have played well on the road.

Kentucky’s offense is eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and can score inside and out. They will find ways to score against Tennessee’s talented defense, and the Vols could likely come out a little flat to start this game. In a rivalry game such as this one, give me the underdog.

Pick: Kentucky +7.5 (-108)

 

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