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If you’re a fan of domestic soccer, then this is the time of year for you! From now until the end of 2023, the English Premier League will run through seven matchdays (14 through 20). I’ll be covering every one of those matchdays as we look to close the year out with some profitable bets. Let’s dive into my top three bets for the contests this weekend!
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Premier League Matchday 14 Preview & Best Bets (2023)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. | Soccer Betting Record 2023-2024: 34-32 (-3.67 units)
Liverpool (-380) vs. Fulham (+850), DRAW (+550) | 3.5 (+105/-130)
The Sunday action kicks off with four matches in the 9:00 a.m. ET window and one of those contests sees Fulham make the trip to the hostile Anfield to take on Liverpool. Fulham’s currently 14th in the table with 15 points while Liverpool is in third with 28.
The Reds are fresh off of a feisty 1-1 draw against Manchester City last weekend, which was a favorable result considering they were on the road. They’ll return home for this match, where they’re a perfect 6-0-0. Meanwhile, Fulham is just 1-3-3 away from home, posting a goal differential ratio of 6:13.
Allowing nearly two goals per road game isn’t a great recipe for success when you’re gearing up to take on arguably the best offense in the PL. Jurgen Klopp’s side has notched 28 goals this season and they’re first overall in expected goals (xG) with 27.1. There’s no doubt in my mind that Liverpool will collect the three points, and I think it’s more likely than not that they win in blowout fashion. I’ll take a shot at laying 2.0 goals here with a +115 payout.
Bet: Liverpool -2.0 (+115)
Bournemouth (+240) vs. Aston Villa (+105), DRAW (+285) | 2.5 (-175/+140)
Aston Villa has played very well through the early going this season, and they’ve done enough to find themselves in fourth place overall (28 points). On the flip side, Bournemouth sits comfortably above the relegation line with 12 points, giving themselves a seven-point cushion. These two sides square off at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday from Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth.
This is one of those matches where we’ll find out if the Villans are truly a top team in the Premier League. I mean, could you imagine teams like City, Arsenal, or Liverpool not securing three points in this type of scenario? I believe that Unai Emery’s squad is up to that challenge, and I think they get it done on the road.
Aston Villa is 4-0-1 in their last five games, meaning they’re in respectable form. Their offense has been excellent, netting the second-most goals in the PL (31). As for the xG, they’re fifth with 25.3. On the flip side, the home squad has the third-highest expected goals against (xGA) mark at 25.0. They don’t have any serious home-pitch advantage either considering they’re just 3-0-3 with a goal differential ratio of 7:9. All things considered, I expect Ollie Watkins (seven goals) & Co. to beat up on this banged-up Bournemouth side.
Bet: Aston Villa Moneyline (+105)
Manchester City (-350) vs. Tottenham (+800), DRAW (+550) | 3.5 (-115/-110)
The Sunday nightcap is a marquee matchup as Manchester City gears up to host Tottenham. The champs currently reside in second place (29 points) while Totteenham’s riding a three-match losing streak, which has dropped them to fifth (26). Kickoff is scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET from Etihad Stadium in Manchester.
City’s a massive favorite in this game, but I haven’t seen enough from the Spurs to try and take a shot with them. However, despite the three-match slide, Ange Postecoglou’s men have managed to score at least once in all three competitions. Road goals haven’t been an issue for Tottenham this year considering they’re second to only Man City (16 goals) in the category with 15. Surprisingly, the Spurs also have the best road record in the PL at 4-2-1. I think their offense finds enough success to help push this game over the total.
Meanwhile, what do we need to say about City? They’re still one of, if not the best team in the world. That includes their offense, which has notched a league-leading 32 goals this campaign. Of course, the scoring effort has been led by Erling Haaland, who leads the league with 14 tallies. Looks for the Citizens to light up the scoreboard against this Spurs side that’s just 12th in xGA at 20.3. Let’s sit back and watch these two potent offenses go to work €“ give me the over!
Bet: Over 3.5 (-115)
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