MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (7/28)

Here are our favorite home run prop bets for Sunday’s MLB slate.

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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bryce Harper (+330) | Kyle Schwarber (+280) | Nick Castellanos (+420)

We are betting on the big three in Philly tonight. After the offense’s big show last night against Cleveland, I believe there is a chance for a repeat performance, as the Guardians are starting lefty Joey Cantillo. 

Cantillo will make his Major League debut this afternoon and will face the #1 offense against opposing lefties. In eight Triple-A starts, the Honolulu native is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. With Philly being the #1 offense against lefties, we have to take a shot with some of the big hitters.

Harper, Schwarber, and Castellano all have an ISO over .200 and at least seven HRs against lefties this season, which ranks them inside the top 20 in the MLB. It’s hard to gauge how long a leash Guardians skipper Stephen Vogt will have with Cantillo, but even if he goes to his bullpen early, I still like our guys.

It’s no secret the Guards have the #1 bullpen in the MLB, but they will get burnt out sooner or later. Entering tonight, Cleveland’s bullpen ranks #1 in ERA, 2nd in HR/9, 1st in LOB%, but has pitched the 9th most innings.

With a rookie on the mound and the bullpen heavily used last night, I think this is another tremendous spot to back Philly and their offense. 

Bobby Witt Jr. (+400) | Salvador Perez (+340)

After losing last night, I am hopping on the Royals bandwagon and expecting a bounce-back game from them. The Cubs’ Javier Assad gets the start this afternoon. Assad has a 5.32 ERA over his last six starts and an 8.26 xFIP in his previous two starts. He has been getting shelled, and with the Royal being one of the better home teams in the league, I’d expect another poor performance from the Cubs’ right-hander.

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Assad relies on his sinker, cutter, and slider when facing opposing right-handed batters, which sets up perfectly for Witt and Perez. Over half of Witt’s 18 HRs have come from those three pitches. If you include the fastball, 15 of his 18 HRs have been off Assad’s most reliable pitches. 

Like his teammate, Salvador has hit over 50% of his 19 HRs on the three pitches Javier Assad likes to throw.

Kurt Blakeway