Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Predictions, Picks & Odds

Apr 10, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Cole Irvin (19) looks on as Boston Red Sox first base Triston Casas (36) runs the bases after hitting a two run home run in the fifth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY SportsTwo struggling pitchers meet on Monday evening when the Minnesota Twins visit the Baltimore OriolesLouis Varland (9.00 ERA) starts for the Twins, opposite Cole Irvin (8.10 ERA) for the OriolesSee the Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles odds, predictions, and picks for April 15

The reigning AL Central and AL East champions start a three-game set at Camden Yards on Monday night when the Minnesota Twins (6-8, 5-4 away, 5-9 O/U) visit the Baltimore Orioles (9-6, 5-4 home, 9-4-2 O/U) at 6:35 pm ET.

Neither manager will feel particularly confident about his starter on Monday with Louie Varland toeing the rubber for Minnesota and Cole Irvin on the bump for the O’s. Oddsmakers give Irvin and the Orioles a slight edge at home.

Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles Odds

Baltimore is a -145 moneyline favorite over Minnesota with the Twins at +125 to improve on their 5-4 road record. The over/under is sitting at 8.5 with the over favored (-125o/+105u) in Monday’s MLB odds.

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Odds as of April 15 at ESPN Bet. See SBD’s list of sports betting apps for real money. 

Both teams find themselves behind the eight ball in their respective MLB division odds. The O’s, who already trail the 12-4 Yankees by 2.5 games, have faded from +180 on Opening Day to +220. The Twins were odds-on -115 chalk to repeat as AL Central champs but, after falling behind Cleveland by 3.5 games (with both KC and Detroit in between), have faded to +175.

Despite starting his big-league career 1-for-15 with nine strikeouts, Baltimore’s Jackson Holliday remains the +283 second-favorite in the MLB Rookie of the Year odds for the American League.

MIN vs BAL Starting Pitchers

The Twins give 26-year-old righty Louie Varland his third start of the season on Monday. Varland has already surrendered nine earned runs on 13 hits (and five walks) in just 9.0 innings of work against the Brewers (a 3-2 loss) and Dodgers (a 6-3 loss).

He managed a 4.63 ERA and 3.81 xFIP in 68.0 innings last season.

Monday will mark his first career start against the Orioles and no one in Baltimore’s lineup has ever faced him before.

Louie Varland vs Cole Irvin

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The Orioles counter with 30-year-old lefty Cole Irvin, who’s also making his third start of 2024. Irvin has lasted exactly five innings in each of his first two starts, allowing four runs on seven hits to the Royals in a 4-1 loss on April 2, and five runs on seven hits to the Red Sox in a 7-5 win.

There is a decent amount of history between Irvin and the Twins hitters. In 56 total at-bats, Minnesota’s lineup is batting .321 but with just a .742 OPS. Irvin has yet to allow a home run to anyone in the Twins lineup, but has issued as many walks (four) as he has strikeouts.

The O’s went 2-0 against the Twins last year in Irvin’s starts, a 2-1 win on July 2nd (when Irvin went 5.0 innings, allowing one run on six hits and three walks) and a 3-1 extra-innings victory less than a week later (when Irving went 6.1 innings, allowing just one run on three hits and no walks).

Twins vs Orioles Prediction

I was surprised to see the over/under sitting at just 8.5 with both pitchers struggling as much as they have been. It’s true that Minnesota has been one of the best under bets in baseball so far this season, but this is largely the same offense that finished tenth in the majors in runs scored last season (778 total; 4.81 runs per game).

The same can be said for the O’s, who averaged 4.98 runs per game in 2023 en route to the AL East title.

Expect crooked numbers on the board early.

MIN vs BAL pick: over 8.5 (-125)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 9-4 (+2.01 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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