Miami Dolphins vs Philadelphia Eagles Same-Game Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) fakes the handoff to running back Raheem Mostert (31) during the first half of an NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Oct. 15, 2023.The Philadelphia Eagles are laying a field goal to the Miami Dolphins at home on SNF tonightMiami’s league-leading offense has only faced one top-ten defense so far this season, and it didn’t go wellGet a +442 Dolphins/Eagles same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football on Oct. 22, 2023

The Week 7 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins (5-1, 2-1 away, 5-1 ATS) and Philadelphia Eagles (5-1, 2-0 home, 3-2-1 ATS) is arguably the best of the season. With two of the NFL’s top  offenses squaring off, points are expected to come in bunches. But today’s Miami Dolphins vs Philadelphia Eagles same-game parlay actually banks on a certain pass rush causing big problems for the opposing quarterback.

Dolphins vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Picks

I made a lot of Miami’s ultra-weak schedule to date in the Dolphins vs Eagles picks, and I stand by it. The Dolphins have been beating up on the worst of the worst in the NFL. The remainder of their schedule is not so kind, starting tonight with a Sunday Night Football matchup against the defending NFC-champion Eagles (8:20 pm ET) at Lincoln Financial Field. Given what Miami showed in their only other test against a top-ten defense this season, tonight’s same-game parlay starts with a play on the Miami first-half under.

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NYG vs BUF same-game parlay odds from FanDuel. Get a FanDuel Sportsbook deposit bonus to wager on Week 6 Sunday Night Football. 

Miami vs Philadelphia SGP Pick #1: Dolphins First-Half Total Under 12.5

Philadelphia’s defense is only 15th in the league in points allowed at 20.7 PPG and 13th in Defensive DVOA, but they finished tied for seventh in scoring defense last year (20.2 PPG) and third in defensive DVOA. They possess the personnel to give Miami’s offense fits. With the exception of Javon Hargrave (now with the 49ers) the Eagles’ front seven possesses largely the same players that racked up 70 sacks last season (4.11 sacks per game), the second-most ever in a season.

While Philly is only averaging 3.11 per game this season, that’s likely to go up before season’s end. When the Dolphins were held to just 20 points by the Bills in their 48-20 Week 4 road loss, Tua Tagovailoa was sacked four times by Buffalo’s pass rush. Miami has only given up two other sacks the entire season, but four of their other five opponents are in the bottom-12 of the NFL in sacks recorded (Giants, Panthers, Broncos, Patriots).

Greg Rousseau sacks Tua 4th and Goal Bills vs Dolphins pic.twitter.com/MPYNHUSLXc

— Trebornotslar (@Trebornotslar) October 1, 2023

I also expect a run-heavy game plan from the Eagles, which is going to limit the number of possessions in the game. Miami is surrendering 114.5 yards per game on the ground and its defense sits a concerning 27th in DVOA. The always run-heavy Eagles sit second in the NFL with 150.0 rushing yards per game. My colleague already discussed why the under on Tua’s passing yards is a good bet in the Dolphins vs Eagles props, which is an assessment I agree with and supports Miami’s offense being less prolific than usual.

Pick: Miami under 12.5 points in the first half (+105)

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Dolphins vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 Rush TDs

Over his past 21 regular-season games (six this year and 15 last year), Jalen Hurts has amassed 18 rushing touchdowns, averaging nearly one per game. If you include playoffs, he has 23 rushing TDs in his last 24 games. The “Brotherly Shove” has become borderline automatic when Philadelphia is in its goal-line offense.

Brotherly Shove in full affect #Flyeaglesfly @JalenHurts pic.twitter.com/JhiI87U6CG

— Tommy Martin III (@iGotYourGirlEBT) October 14, 2023

This is effectively a bet on the Eagles possessing the ball inside the Miami three-yard line at some point in the game. Given what I already wrote about Miami’s lackluster defense, that’s highly likely. At -140 odds, this wager only needs a 59% implied probability to have positive expected value (+EV).

Going back to the start of 2022, Hurts has only been held out of the end zone on eight occasions, while scoring at least one rushing major 16 times (a 66.7% clip).

Pick: Jalen Hurts over 0.5 rushing TDs (-140)

MIA vs PHI Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Game Total Under 52.5 (-112)

The final leg of today’s Miami vs Philadelphia same-game parlay is somewhat correlated with the first: under 52.5 points for the full game. As discussed, I expect the Eagles defense to find success early, which should translate to a halftime lead. From there, head coach Nick Sirianni should stick with a run-heavy game plan in the second half, again bleeding clock while they nurse the lead.

This wager is fading the public. The Miami/Philadelphia game total opened at 52.5 last Sunday night but has actually come down to 52 at some sportsbooks despite 75% of the NFL public betting money going to the over. This is an indication that oddsmakers are confident in their initial handicap, sharp money is on the under, or potentially both. Eagles games are only averaging 46.5 PPG for the season and, if they control the scoreboard the way I expect them too, they’ll also control the pace.

Pick: game total under 52.5 (-112)

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