Expert Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks Against the Spread

Jan 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) calls out an audible during the first quarter against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY SportsThis week our expert Wild Card Weekend NFL ATS picks see selections on six of the 12 playoff teamsWill Joe Flacco remain undefeated in the Wild Card Round in his career on Saturday?Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here

WIth only six games to choose from this week in our Wild Card Weekend NFL picks against the spread, there was bound to be some consensus. It’s come in the form of two NFL best bets backing Joe Flacco and the Browns over CJ Stroud and the Texans, plus a clean sweep of picks on the Bucs over the Eagles on MNF. See all of our top NFL ATS picks here.

NFL Expert Picks Today

The most chosen team in this week’s NFL ATS picks is the underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +3 on Monday Night Football.

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Ryan Metivier

Cowboys (-7)

It’s a well-known stat that Dallas has turned AT&T Stadium into a fortress of late. They’re 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this season. They’re also 16-0 SU dating back to last season when playing at home.

But not only are they winning, they’re winning big. Dallas’ home wins have come by 20, 35, 23, 32, 35, 6, 20 and then 1 point against Detroit most recently in Week 17. Total that up and they’ve outscored teams by a +172 margin when playing at home.

Only Dak Prescott has thrown for more passing touchdowns than Jordan Love of the Packers, so this game could be shaping up to see plenty of points. But Green Bay also has the youngest receivers and youngest team overall in the league. Going into this hostile environment in Dallas may be too much for them this season.

25 minutes. 135 catches. 💿🐑@_CeeDeeThree | Sunday ➡️ #GBvsDAL on FOX pic.twitter.com/nw67UUvKa0

— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) January 10, 2024

Rams (+3)

Both teams are coming in on highs here with Detroit winning their first division title since 1993 and the Rams riding a winning streak of four games. Los Angeles has also won seven of their past eight games with the lone defeat being in overtime on the road in Baltimore.

The Lions were fighting til the end last week, winning 30-20 over the Vikings, but played all of their starters, lost rookie tight end sensation Sam LaPorta to a knee injury and saw Nick Mullens throw for 396 yards against them. Meanwhile, the Rams rested their key players and bring with them the league’s 8th-ranked scoring offense.

We’ve seen Lions’ coach Dan Campbell make some questionable decisions of late so I’ll trust Sean McVay a bit more here to possibly upset straight up, but at least to cover in the NFL point spread.

Buccaneers (+3)

The Eagles have been in freefall for weeks and have just one single win in their past six games. That came against the 6-11 Giants and only by a 33-25 score. They’ve also lost to the Giants 27-10 in Week 18 and the Cardinals 35-31 in Week 17. They’re 0-3 SU in their past three road games and have scored only 13, 17 and 10 points in those games.

Tampa Bay only barely got by Carolina themselves last week winning 9-0. Baker Mayfield is dealing with rib and ankle injuries but the Eagles have Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown and a whole host of other starters dealing with issues on the Eagles vs Buccaneers injury report themselves.

I don’t love either of these teams right now, but at home getting points, I’ll take the Bucs in my NFL ATS picks.

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Bob Duff

Browns (-2)

Yes, Leonard Fournette is in Buffalo, but forget about Playoff Lenny. Let’s discuss Playoff Joe. Cleveland QB Joe Flacco is 10-5 in the NFL playoffs. He’s 5-0 in the Wild Card Round.

As for Houston’s CJ Stroud, the betting choice in the NFL OROY odds is seeking to defy the NFL playoff odds. Rookie QBs are 2-6 in their last eight NFL playoff starts. No rookie QB has ever won more than two games in a playoff year. The first to do so? Flacco, with the 2008 Baltimore Ravens.

Only 6 rookie QBs have won a playoff game since the 2000 season:

🏈 Brock Purdy (2023)🏈 Russell Wilson (2013)🏈 T.J. Yates (2012)🏈 Mark Sanchez (2010)🏈 Joe Flacco (2009)🏈 Ben Roethlisberger (2005)

Will C.J Stroud join this list Saturday? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/hYIhifRmY5

— ESPN BET (@ESPNBet) January 12, 2024

Packers (+7)

The only time this season that the Green Bay Packers were underdogs by more than a touchdown, they won outright on Thanksgiving at Detroit. Dallas only beat the Lions at home by a point just two weeks ago.

The Cowboys are 1-2 ATS in their last three home games. This Wild Card Playoff spread opened at Dallas -7 and grew larger ut has since returned to -7. Take the Packers to cover.

Buccaneers (+3)

No NFL team that’s still playing this season is in a deeper free fall than the Eagles. Last season’s NFC champions have dropped five of six SU and are 0-6 ATS over their last six games. They’ve gone 0-4 ATS as the chalk through the last four games of the regular season.

Meanwhile, behind QB Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers are 5-1 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS over the past five. Tampa Bay is 11-6 ATS this season. Philadelphia beat Tampa Bay 25-11 but that was in Week 3, which seems a long time ago for the Eagles.

Zach Reger

Browns (-2)

The Browns and Texans played earlier this year, and Cleveland won 36-22. While this game might be closer, the Browns should still take care of business in Houston. Joe Flacco has looked great since taking over as the starter for Cleveland and is 11-4 against the spread in his career in the NFL Playoffs.

The Browns should not have a problem scoring against Houston’s defense, and the Browns have a big advantage on the defensive side of the ball, even though they are not quite the same unit on the road. The Browns advance to the divisional round.

NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Public Betting & Money Percentages for All GamesRead More

Chiefs (-4.5)

This game is going to be ice-cold. The wind chill in Kansas City will be well into the negatives, which favors the home team. The Chiefs are much better at home regardless of the temperature, and the Dolphins should struggle in this weather.

Outside of the temperature, the Dolphins are a very injured team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Even though the Bills only beat the Dolphins by a touchdown last week, Buffalo drove the ball on Miami without much of a problem. Kansas City’s offense has struggled, but it’s the playoffs now, and the Chiefs should find a way to move the ball against Miami at home.

Buccaneers (+3)

At one point in the season, the Eagles were 10-1 and looking to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Things turned quickly as Philadelphia went just 1-5 over their last six games including losses to the Cardinals and the Giants to end the season.

The Buccaneers on the other hand have won five of their last six to win the NFC South. Rachaad White has come on in the ground game and should have a day against Philadelphia’s struggling run defense. I like getting a full field goal with a home dog in the playoffs. This game should be close.

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