Expert Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Dec 31, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) jogs off the field after the game against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsThis week our expert Week 18 NFL ATS picks are all over the board with picks on seven different teamsCan Houston go to Indianapolis and win this all-important win or go home game?Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here

There’s still plenty to be decided in Week 18. Can the Ravens player spoiler? Will CJ Stroud make it to the playoffs in his rookie season? Can the Bears and Cardinals snap losing streaks versus the Packers and Seahawks? And can the Giants and Panthers pull upsets? We break down all of these questions in this week’s expert NFL picks against the spread.

NFL Expert Picks Today

The top picks in our expert ATS picks this week come in on the Texans over the Colts and Seahawks over the Cardinals.

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Ryan Metivier

Ravens (+3.5)

Lamar Jackson and others may be sitting out as this game means nothing for the Ravens, but John Harbaugh takes all games seriously and Harbaugh as an underdog in his career is 46-30-3 ATS. Conversely, Mike Tomlin as a favorite is not usually a good betting proposition as 85-96-2 ATS. Then there’s this. When Harbaugh and Tomlin meet up historically, the underdog in the NFL betting odds has been an ATM, going 23-5-3 ATS.

You can only sit so many players. The Ravens will still have many starters playing and would like nothing more than to have a hand in likely knocking Pittsburgh out of playoff contention.

They’ll also want to reverse the NFL team trends that have seen Pittsburgh go 6-1 SU versus Baltimore in their past seven games. Each of those games have been decided by one score (7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5 and 4 points) and another close game here wouldn’t surprise anyone.

Bears (+3)

Green Bay’s two wins in the last month have been a narrow 33-30 win over Carolina, where they allowed Bryce Young to have his best game of the season. And then a lopsided 33-10 win over Minnesota last week, but that came with rookie Jaren Hall putting the Vikings into a massive 23-3 hole at halftime which sunk the Vikings early.

They won’t be playing a rookie quarterback here in Justin Fields. They’re also getting a Bears team that is rolling with wins in four of five games. Green Bay is 1-3 ATS in their last four games and Jordan Love is 1-5 ATS as a favorite in his career. The Packers had also given up 30, 34 and 24 points in their three games prior to the Minnesota game.

To me the momentum is clearly in the Bears’ favor here and despite no playoff motivation, they’ll be just as motivated to knock off their rivals and to end a run fo nine straight wins by Green Bay in this rivalry.

"I don't want to hear anybody tell me this guy can't read a defense. He's improved and is a legitimate big time thrower" – @BaldyNFL had a lot to say about Justin Fields, where the #bears are right now and where they are headed. THIS, from The NFL Report, is a must see! pic.twitter.com/82fcStIpdg

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 5, 2024

Giants (+5.5)

It’s an all-underdog week for me here to close out my Week 18 NFL picks against the spread with the Giants looking like another underdog that is still trying, playing against a favorite that has been struggling.

The Eagles are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their past five games. That one win came against this Giants team, where they failed to cover as 14-point favorites, only winning 33-25 in Philly. That game only saw one half of Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. It’s a full game of Tyrod this week which is a big upgrade over Tommy DeVito.

The Eagles just got gashed on the ground last week versus the Cardinals and Saquon Barkley could pose a similar problem this week. With Philly needing the Commanders to pull off an unlikely upset over the Cowboys to have any chance of winning the NFC East, there’s also a real possibility that Nick Sirianni starts to pull some starters if he gets word that Dallas is getting way up on Washington.

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Bob Duff

Texans (-1)

A road victory over the Indianapolis Colts guarantees that the Houston Texans are in the NFL postseason. A Houston win plus a Jacksonville loss at Tennessee gives the Texans the AFC South title.

The road club is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four games between the Colts and Texans.

Packers (-3)

The Green Bay Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS in the past nine meetings with their NFC North rivals the Chicago Bears.

At Lambeau Field, Green Bay is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS over the past seven contests. The Packers won their past three home games against Chicago by an average margin of 17 points.

Seahawks (-2.5)

Seattle’s Week 18 scenario is identical to last season. The Seahawks need to win and hope Green Bay loses in order to make the playoffs.

It worked out for them last year. This time, though, like Jon Bon Jovi, Seattle will get halfway there while living on a prayer. The Seahawks have covered in four straight against Arizona.

NFL Player Incentives & Prop Totals – See Which Players Have Bonuses on the Line in Week 18Read More

Zach Reger

Texans (-1)

Despite losing to the Colts earlier in the year, the Texans have looked like the stronger team on both offense and defense. CJ Stroud returned last week and the whole team cruised to a victory over the Titans. This is essentially a playoff game, and I trust the better quarterback and better defense, even with them being on the road.

Houston is still alive in the AFC South race as well if the Jaguars lose on Sunday. The Texans win this game and get into the playoffs in CJ Stroud’s rookie season.

Here’s the video clip of Todd Bowles praising Bryce Young. In case you didn’t know, he also coached a guy by the name of Tom Brady.

🎥 Tampa Bay Buccaneers https://t.co/39gOqMAk1z pic.twitter.com/jl9gSHHuAd

— Two Growls One Roar (@2growls1roar) January 5, 2024

Panthers (+4.5)

Possibly the grossest pick of the season, but Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are difficult to trust as big favorites. Since October of 2021, Baker Mayfield is 0-6 against the spread as a favorite of over three points.

Carolina’s offense showed life two weeks ago, and we should see more of that team as opposed to what we saw last week in Jacksonville. The Panthers do their best to play spoiler and keep this divisional matchup close as a home underdog.

Seahawks (-2.5)

With Seattle losing to the Steelers, this Week 18 game means much more now. This line also seems like a bit of a discount after Arizona upset the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday.

Arizona will go back to what they’ve been all year, and Seattle’s offense will exploit the Cardinals defense. The Seahawks run away with this NFC West battle.

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