Denver Nuggets vs LA Clippers Spread, Odds, Picks & Player Props

Nov 14, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) drives to the basket against Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. (1) in the second quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY SportsThe Denver Nuggets vs LA Clippers rounds out Monday’s NBA scheduleThe Clippers are 7.5-point home favorites against the shorthanded NuggetsSee the full slate of Nuggets vs Clippers odds, plus picks and predictions for Monday’s game at crypto.com Arena

Battling through multiple significant injuries, the Denver Nuggets (11-6, 3-6 away, 6-11 ATS) visit the LA Clippers (7-8, 5-2 home, 6-9 ATS) at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles tonight at 7:40 pm PT/10:40 pm ET, rounding out the NBA’s five-game Monday slate.

The Clippers opened as 5.5-point home favorites, but with Denver’s Aaron Gordon ruled out of Monday’s NBA lineups due to a foot injury, that spread has now jumped two full points in favor of LAC.

Denver Nuggets vs LA Clippers Odds

Monday’s NBA odds currently list the Clippers as 7.5-point home favorites and -270 on the moneyline. Denver is still without Jamal Murray, as well, who has missed the last ten games with a hamstring injury.

Nikola Jokic is listed as “questionable” due to lower-back pain. He was also on Denver’s injury report last game with the same ailment but played 34 minutes in the 132-120 win over San Antonio, scoring 39 points with 11 rebounds and nine assists.

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Odds as of Nov. 27 on the FanDuel app. New users can claim the FanDuel promo for November to bet on any of Monday’s NBA games, including Nuggets vs Clippers.

Monday’s NBA public betting splits show Denver getting 72% of ATS handle, but the Clippers receiving 58% of moneyline handle.

Clippers (Mostly) Taking Care of Business at Home

With a dominant 107-88 home win over the Mavericks on Saturday night, LA improved its record at crypto.com Arena to 5-2 on the year (not including a “road” game against the Lakers). That said, the Clippers are only 4-3 against the spread in those seven home games, and Saturday’s win put a stop to run of three straight ATS losses at home.

Paul George, who’s averaging a team-high 25.4 PPG on the season, led the way with 25 in the win over Dallas, which marked the seventh straight game he hit at least 23.

Kawhi Leonard has played all 15 games for LAC this season, and is second on the team to George in both scoring (20.4 PPG) and minutes (33.5 MPG).  But his surface-level numbers and efficiency are both way down compared to years past. Leonard has a PER of just 18.9, which would be the lowest he’s recorded since his second season in the league (16.4 in 2012-13) and the first time he’s been under 20 since his third year as a pro.

If he doesn’t up his scoring by over three points per game, he’ll record his lowest PPG average since 2014-15 (excluding the 2017-18 campaign when he played just nine games).

Fellow ageing star James Harden is off to a fairly sluggish start to his Clippers tenure. The 34-year-old is averaging just 14.4 PPG on 44.3% shooting from the field with 27.1% of his points coming from the free-throw line. The Clippers are just 4-7 straight-up since he was acquired from the 76ers, including both home losses (to Memphis and New Orleans).

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Denver Night-and-Day Different Away from Home

Alongside the East-leading Boston Celtics, the Denver Nuggets are one of two teams that remains undefeated at home (8-0). But the reigning NBA champions have looked like a shell of themselves outside of Colorado, going 3-6 on the road, including double-digit losses at Minnesota (110-89), Cleveland (121-109), and Houston (105-86). They only own one away win against a team with a winning record (128-95 at OKC on October 29). Their other two came against 3-13 Memphis (108-104) and 2-14 Detroit (107-103).

Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic – and current favorite in the 2024 NBA MVP odds – continues to dominate the league, averaging nearly a triple-double (28.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 8.9 APG), but Denver’s secondary scoring has taken a dive without Murray: the Nuggets are averaging just 113.1 points per game as a team, compared to 115.8 last year. Michael Porter Jr is second on the team at 17.4 PPG, the exact number he averaged last season.

DEN vs LAC Player Props

Player props and odds from the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Nov. 27. 

Looking at Monday’s NBA player props, Jokic has the highest total by a wide margin for this game at 30.5. George is the highest of the Clippers at 25.5 while Leonard is just behind him at 23.5. Jokic also has the highest rebound total (12.5) and assist total (9.5) on the board.

Nuggets vs Clippers Prediction

The Nuggets road struggles are real and prolonged, but they won’t finish the season with a .333 win percentage away from home. They were 19-22 away last year and an excellent 25-16 the year prior.

LA’s home victories over Portland, San Antonio, Orland, Houston, and Dallas don’t paint a picture of dominance. That quintet of teams is a combined 15-25 on the road.  The Kawhi Leonard decline doesn’t show palpable signs of turning around. The 32-year-old has only hit the 30-point plateau once all season and has stayed under Monday’s over/under of 23.5 points in five of his past seven.

Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr has gone over 17.5 points in four of his past six games, and with both Murray and Gordon sidelined, is going to see increased usage tonight.

DEN vs LAC picks:

Nuggets first-half +4.5 (-112)Michael Porter Jr over 17.5 points (-115)Kawhi Leonard under 23.5 points (-115)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

5-3-2 ATS (+1.55 units)2-1 ML (+0.74 units)3-5 player props (-2.27 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise. 

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