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The WNBA season rolls on with a four-game Friday night slate. Let’s check out top WNBA picks and bets for tonight’s action as we focus on the Aces vs. Lynx marquee matchup and the Mercury vs. Dream. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks!
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Friday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) €“ O/U 168.5 (-110/-110)
Friday night’s WNBA slate features an exciting matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx. These are two of the best teams in the league and it’s actually a rematch from Wednesday when the Lynx won 98-87.
That game two days ago saw the total sail over the 167.5 Over/Under as the Lynx easily covered as 6.5-point underdogs. We now have Minnesota as the small favorite tonight with a total slightly higher as well. Despite just seeing a high-scoring outcome between these squads, this rematch should be on the lower side of combined points.
Minnesota boasts the best defense in the league and that elite unit will set the tone here. The Lynx allow 75.5 PPG (2nd in WNBA) while leading the league in opposing field goal percentage (40.7%), opposing three-point percentage (29.2%), and defensive rating (94.1). They also play at the second-slowest pace in the league.
Minnesota’s defense also plays a bit better at home €“ allowing 72.8 PPG this season. In turn, the Lynx tend to play in lower-scoring games at home. The Under has cashed in 10 of 15 home games, including 8 of their last 10 home contests.
Though Las Vegas does have arguably the best offense in the WNBA, averaging a league-high 87.8 PPG, the Minnesota defense will be the catalyst in this matchup. In Wednesday’s game, the Lynx held Aces star A’ja Wilson to 15 points €“ well below her season average of 26.9 PPG.
Vegas, meanwhile, has been better defensively on the road lately. In their past five road games, the Aces are allowing 80.2 PPG with the Under going 4-1 in this stretch. They have also played to the Under in five of their last seven games overall.
Finally, since these teams just played each other two days ago, the recent familiarity cannot be overlooked. Expect both defenses to be more buttoned-up, especially since they just competed in a faster-paced matchup. Las Vegas, especially, should be more dialed in on defense with more motivation to get a win.
WNBA Pick: Under 168.5 Total Points (-110)
Phoenix Mercury (-2.5) at Atlanta Dream €“ O/U 163.5 (-110/-110)
Our second WNBA pick for Friday night brings us to the Atlanta Dream hosting the Phoenix Mercury. Like the above matchup, these two teams just faced off on Wednesday with the Dream winning, 72-63. Now they face off again in a rare instance of consecutive games against the same opponent.
Despite Atlanta winning two days ago, Phoenix is still the better team and is rightfully favored on the road for this rematch. In that loss, the Mercury mustered only 63 points with only two double-digit scorers. Expect some positive regression for the Phoenix offense, which is one of the best in the WNBA €“ ranking third in offensive rating and fourth in points per game. The veteran-laden team should be motivated to bounce back and win tonight after such a down performance.
The Mercury’s loss to Atlanta on Wednesday also broke a season-long trend which should revert back to normal tonight. Phoenix usually beats up the bottom-tier teams in the league but struggles against better ones. Before the poor result vs. the Dream, the Mercury were 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS when facing the bottom five teams in the current standings. Plus, they are now 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games as favorites.
Full disclosure, the Dream are on a roll right now with three straight outright wins as underdogs coming out of the Olympics break. Yet, Atlanta will likely regress back to the losing team it was for most of the season. Before the break, the Dream went 1-11 over the previous 12 games with 8 straight losses.
Give Atlanta credit for what it’s done lately, but it’s hard to imagine this continuing for such a subpar team. The Dream are still the worst offense in the WNBA, ranking last in points per game, field-goal percentage, assists per game, and offense rating. If the Mercury can respond offensively tonight, then Atlanta will find itself in a hole.
WNBA Pick: Mercury -2.5 (-108)
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