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NFL Week 3 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2021)
Week 3 saw rookie quarterbacks go 0-5 ATS and gave us lots of close finishes, including a record-breaking kick.
September 28, 2021 – by Jason Lisk
Keenan Allen got a big win over KC (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
Week 3 2021 Highlights
Week 3 featured the longest field goal in NFL history, which allowed the Baltimore Ravens to survive an upset bid by the Detroit Lions.We got an overtime thriller between the Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins, and a last-second game-winner by the Green Bay Packers against the San Francisco 49ers.Rookie quarterbacks also had another tough week, as the five rookies who started in Week 3 combined to go 0-5 against the spread.
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Week 3 Betting Results
Biggest upset: Los Angeles Chargers over Kansas City Chiefs (+7, +245 moneyline)Biggest ATS cover margin: New Orleans Saints over New England Patriots (+18, won by 15 points as 3-point underdog)Most points above over/under line: Buffalo Bills-Washington Football Team (+18.5, 64 total points vs. O/U line of 45.5)Most points below over/under line: Atlanta Falcons-New York Giants (-16.5, 31 total points vs. O/U line of 47.5)Over/Unders: Five overs, 11 undersHome Teams: 8-8 SU, 8-8 ATSFavorites: 9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS
(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)
NFL Season Betting Numbers
Here are the against-the-spread numbers so far this year in some key categories.
2021 Home/Road and Favorite/Under ATS Results
| Category | W | L | T | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 20 | 27 | 0 | 42.6% |
| Away | 27 | 20 | 0 | 57.4% |
| Favorite | 18 | 30 | 0 | 37.5% |
| Underdog | 30 | 18 | 0 | 62.5% |
Notables
Favorites have performed poorly overall so far in 2021. Larger favorites are an exception, as teams favored by seven or more points are 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS in 2021.Road teams have also covered at a solid rate so far in 2021. Home teams have lost more than half of all games straight up through three weeks (23-24).With unders hitting at a high rate in Week 3, they now have the better of it so far. Overs are only 20-28.
Here are links to the most up-to-date info for ATS and over/under records so far in 2021:
NFL ATS Records and Trends
Over/Under Records and Trends
2021 Results by Closing Point Spread
2021 Results by Closing Over/Under Total
Week 3 Miscues
Events like interceptions, lost fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions often lead to a loss of expected points and/or great field position for an opponent.
These “drive-ending miscues” often represent nothing more than bad luck. Adjusting for their effects can improve your NFL handicapping, since luck tends to even out over the long term.
Highlights
Teams with four or more drive-ending miscues went 0-7 ATS.Teams with no drive-ending miscues went 4-0 ATS.Turnovers continue to be an issue for the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jets never scored against Denver, but Jacksonville had a second-half lead until rookie QB Trevor Lawrence threw a pick-six that turned the game.The Kansas City Chiefs were the largest favorite to lose in Week 3, as they had four total turnovers while the Chargers had none.The Chicago Bears had zero turnovers and only one turnover on downs. It’s pretty hard to lose by 20 while winning the turnovers and miscues results, but Chicago managed because of its poor offense in Justin Fields’ first start (47 total yards).The Tennessee Titans won a second game in a row while losing the turnover battle.
The full data below is sorted by total drive-ending miscues. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field-goal attempts.
Week 3 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts
| Team | TO | FG miss | Downs | Total | Opp | Margin | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -4 | L |
| NYJ | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -3 | L |
| JAC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | L |
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | L |
| KC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 | L |
| WAS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -3 | L |
| NE | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | L |
| MIA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | W |
| TEN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | W |
| NO | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | L |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | W |
| BAL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | L |
| ARI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| SF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | L |
| LV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | L |
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| IND | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| CHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| GB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| NYG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| DEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| LAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| LAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
2021 Season Total Miscues
In terms of season-to-date miscues, the Titans are still down there with the Jets and Jaguars, but they have moved to 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS.
Tennessee may be better than their raw numbers suggest based on how poorly they’ve fared with turnovers so far.
2021 Season Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts Summary
| Team | TO | FG Miss | Downs | Total | Opp | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| LAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 |
| ARI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| DAL | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| HOU | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| LV | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| NE | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| NO | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| LAC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| SF | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| BUF | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 2 |
| GB | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| TB | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| CIN | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| CHI | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| IND | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| KC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -1 |
| NYG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| PIT | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| BAL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| MIA | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 7 | -3 |
| ATL | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -4 |
| CLE | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | -4 |
| DET | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -4 |
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 4 | -4 |
| WAS | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -4 |
| TEN | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 3 | -9 |
| JAC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 2 | -10 |
| NYJ | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 2 | -11 |
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